[Estimation of prevalence of chronic Chagas disease in Brazilian municipalitiesEstimación de la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en los municipios brasileños]. / Estimativa de prevalência de doença de Chagas crônica nos municípios brasileiros.

Objective: The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of chronic Chagas disease (CCD) in Brazil: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Methods: A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted to extract data on the prevalence of CCD in municipalities in Brazil in the 2010-2022 period: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Municipal-level CCD indicators available in health information systems were selected. Statistical modeling of the data extracted from the meta-analysis (based on data obtained from information systems) was applied to linear, generalized linear, and additive models. Results: The five most appropriate models were selected from a total of 549 models tested to obtain a consensus model (adjusted R2 = 54%). The most important predictor was self-reported CCD in the primary health care information system. Zero prevalence was estimated in 1 792 (32%) of Brazil's 5 570 municipalities; in the remaining 3 778 municipalities, average prevalence of the disease was estimated at 3.25% (± 2.9%). The number of carriers of CCD was estimated for the Brazilian population (~3.7 million), for women (~2.1 million) and for women of childbearing age (~590 000). The disease reproduction rate was calculated at 1.0336. All estimates refer to the 2015-2016 period. Conclusions: The estimated prevalence of CCD, especially among women of childbearing age, highlights the challenge of vertical transmission in Brazilian municipalities. Mathematical projections suggest that these estimates should be included in the national program for the elimination of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

Objetivo: El objetivo de este estudio fue estimar la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil. Métodos: Se realizó un metanálisis de la bibliografía para extraer datos sobre la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil, en los municipios de Brasil durante el período 2010-2022. Se seleccionaron los indicadores relacionados con esa enfermedad disponibles en los sistemas municipales de información de salud. La modelización estadística de los datos extraídos del metanálisis, en función de los obtenidos de los sistemas de información, se aplicó a modelos lineales, lineales generalizados y aditivos. Resultados: Se seleccionaron los cinco modelos más apropiados de un total de 549 modelos evaluados, para obtener un modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). El factor predictor más importante fue el registro de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica autodeclarada en el sistema de información de atención primaria de salud. De los 5570 municipios brasileños, en 1792 (32%) la prevalencia estimada fue nula y en los 3778 restantes la prevalencia media fue del 3,25% (± 2,9%). El número estimado de pacientes con enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil fue de ~3,7 millones, ~2,1 millones y ~590 000, respectivamente. La tasa calculada de reproducción de la enfermedad fue de 1,0336. Todas las estimaciones se refieren al período 2015-2016. Conclusiones: La prevalencia estimada de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, especialmente en las mujeres en edad fértil, pone de manifiesto el desafío que representa la transmisión vertical en los municipios brasileños. Estas estimaciones están en línea con los patrones de las proyecciones matemáticas, y sugieren la necesidad de incorporarlas al Pacto Nacional para la Eliminación de la Transmisión Vertical de la Enfermedad de Chagas.

Estimativa de prevalência de doença de Chagas crônica nos municípios brasileiros / Estimation of prevalence of chronic Chagas disease in Brazilian municipalities / Estimación de la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en los municipios brasileños

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Este estudo teve como objetivo estimar a prevalência da doença de Chagas (DC) crônica (DCC) na população brasileira, em mulheres e em mulheres em idade fértil. Métodos. Foi realizada uma metanálise da literatura para extrair dados de prevalência de DCC na população brasileira, em mulheres e em mulheres em idade fértil, em municípios do Brasil, no período 2010–2022. Indi- cadores relacionados com a DCC disponíveis nos sistemas de informação em saúde foram selecionados em escala municipal. A modelagem estatística dos dados extraídos da metanálise em função daqueles obtidos dos sistemas de informação foi aplicada a modelos lineares, lineares generalizados e aditivos. Resultados. Foram selecionados os cinco modelos mais adequados de um total de 549 modelos testados para obtenção de um modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). O preditor mais importante foi o cadastro autorreferido de DCC do sistema de informação da Atenção Primária à Saúde. Dos 5 570 munícipios brasi- leiros, a prevalência foi estimada como zero em 1 792 (32%); nos 3 778 municípios restantes, a prevalência média da doença foi estimada em 3,25% (± 2,9%). O número de portadores de DCC foi estimado na popu- lação brasileira (~3,7 milhões), mulheres (~2,1 milhões) e mulheres em idade fértil (~590 mil). A taxa de reprodução da doença foi calculada em 1,0336. Todas as estimativas se referem ao intervalo 2015–2016. Conclusões. As prevalências estimadas de DCC, especialmente entre mulheres em idade fértil, evidenciam o desafio da transmissão vertical em municípios brasileiros. Estas estimativas são comparadas aos padrões de projeções matemáticas, sugerindo sua incorporação ao Pacto Nacional para a Eliminação da Transmissão Vertical da DC.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of chronic Chagas disease (CCD) in Brazil: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Methods. A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted to extract data on the prevalence of CCD in munici- palities in Brazil in the 2010–2022 period: in the general population, in women, and in women of childbearing age. Municipal-level CCD indicators available in health information systems were selected. Statistical mode- ling of the data extracted from the meta-analysis (based on data obtained from information systems) was applied to linear, generalized linear, and additive models. Results. The five most appropriate models were selected from a total of 549 models tested to obtain a con- sensus model (adjusted R2 = 54%). The most important predictor was self-reported CCD in the primary health care information system. Zero prevalence was estimated in 1 792 (32%) of Brazil’s 5 570 municipalities; in the remaining 3 778 municipalities, average prevalence of the disease was estimated at 3.25% (± 2.9%). The number of carriers of CCD was estimated for the Brazilian population (~3.7 million), for women (~2.1 million) and for women of childbearing age (~590 000). The disease reproduction rate was calculated at 1.0336. All estimates refer to the 2015–2016 period. Conclusions. The estimated prevalence of CCD, especially among women of childbearing age, highlights the challenge of vertical transmission in Brazilian municipalities. Mathematical projections suggest that these estimates should be included in the national program for the elimination of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. El objetivo de este estudio fue estimar la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil. Métodos. Se realizó un metanálisis de la bibliografía para extraer datos sobre la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil, en los municipios de Brasil durante el período 2010-2022. Se seleccionaron los indicadores relacionados con esa enfermedad disponibles en los sistemas municipales de información de salud. La modelización estadística de los datos extraídos del metanálisis, en función de los obtenidos de los sistemas de información, se aplicó a modelos lineales, lineales generalizados y aditivos. Resultados. Se seleccionaron los cinco modelos más apropiados de un total de 549 modelos evaluados, para obtener un modelo de consenso (R2 ajustado = 54%). El factor predictor más importante fue el registro de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica autodeclarada en el sistema de información de atención primaria de salud. De los 5570 municipios brasileños, en 1792 (32%) la prevalencia estimada fue nula y en los 3778 restantes la prevalencia media fue del 3,25% (± 2,9%). El número estimado de pacientes con enfermedad de Chagas crónica en la población brasileña en general, en las mujeres y en las mujeres en edad fértil fue de ~3,7 millo- nes, ~2,1 millones y ~590 000, respectivamente. La tasa calculada de reproducción de la enfermedad fue de 1,0336. Todas las estimaciones se refieren al período 2015-2016. Conclusiones. La prevalencia estimada de la enfermedad de Chagas crónica, especialmente en las mujeres en edad fértil, pone de manifiesto el desafío que representa la transmisión vertical en los municipios brasi- leños. Estas estimaciones están en línea con los patrones de las proyecciones matemáticas, y sugieren la necesidad de incorporarlas al Pacto Nacional para la Eliminación de la Transmisión Vertical de la Enfermedad de Chagas.

Reaching the malaria elimination goal in Brazil: a spatial analysis and time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2015, the Global Technical Strategy (GTS) for Malaria 2016-2030 has been adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a comprehensive framework to accelerate progress for malaria elimination in endemic countries. This strategy sets the target of reducing global malaria incidence and mortality rates by 90% in 2030. Here it is sought to evaluate Brazil's achievements towards reaching the WHO GTS milestone in 2030. Considering the total number of new malaria cases in 2015, the main research question is: will Brazil reach the malaria elimination goal in 2030? METHODS: Analytical strategies were undertaken using the SIVEP-malaria official databases of the Brazilian Malaria Control Programme for the Brazilian Amazon region from 2009 to 2020. Spatial and time-series analyses were applied for identifying municipalities that support the highest numbers of malaria cases over the years. Forecast analysis was used for predicting the estimated number of new cases in Brazil in 2025-2050. RESULTS: Brazil has significantly reduced the number of new malaria cases in 2020 in comparison with 2015 in the states of Acre (- 56%), Amapá (- 75%), and Amazonas (- 21%); however, they increased in the states of Pará (156%), Rondônia (74%), and Roraima (362%). Forecast of the predicted number of new malaria cases in 2030 is 74,764 (95% CI: 41,116-141,160) in the Brazilian Amazon. CONCLUSIONS: It is likely that Brazil will reduce the number of new malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon in 2030 in relation to that in 2015. Herein forecast shows a reduction by 46% (74,754 in 2030 forecast/137,982 in 2015), but this reduction is yet far from the proposed reduction under the WHO GTS 2030 milestone (90%). Stable and unbeatable transmission in the Juruá River Valley, Manaus, and Lábrea still support endemic malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. Today's cross-border malaria is impacting the state of Roraima unprecedently. If this situation is maintained, the malaria elimination goal (zero cases) may not be reached before 2050. An enhanced political commitment is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs in the post-2030 milestones for malaria elimination.

Current vector control challenges in the fight against malaria in Brazil.

In Brazil, malaria is an important public health problem first reported in 1560. Historically, fluctuations in malaria cases in Brazil are attributed to waves of economic development; construction of railroads, highways, and hydroelectric dams; and population displacement and land occupation policies. Vector control measures have been widely used with an important role in reducing malaria cases. In this review article, we reviewed the vector control measures established in the Brazilian territory and aspects associated with such measures for malaria. Although some vector control measures are routinely used in Brazil, many entomological and effectiveness information still need better evidence in endemic areas where Plasmodium vivax predominates. Herein, we outlined some of the needs and priorities for future research: a) update of the cartography of malaria vectors in Brazil, adding molecular techniques for the correct identification of species and complexes of species; b) evaluation of vector competence of anophelines in Brazil; c) strengthening of local entomology teams to perform vector control measures and interpret results; d) evaluation of vector control measures, especially use of insecticide-treated nets and long-lasting insecticidal nets, estimating their effectiveness, cost-benefit, and population acceptance; e) establishment of colonies of malaria vectors in Brazil, i.e., Anopheles darlingi, to understand parasite-vector interactions better; f) study of new vector control strategies with impacts on non-endophilic vectors; g) estimation of the impact of insecticide resistance in different geographical areas; and h) identification of the relative contribution of natural and artificial breeding sites in different epidemiological contexts for transmission.

Current vector control challenges in the fight against malaria in Brazil

Abstract In Brazil, malaria is an important public health problem first reported in 1560. Historically, fluctuations in malaria cases in Brazil are attributed to waves of economic development; construction of railroads, highways, and hydroelectric dams; and population displacement and land occupation policies. Vector control measures have been widely used with an important role in reducing malaria cases. In this review article, we reviewed the vector control measures established in the Brazilian territory and aspects associated with such measures for malaria. Although some vector control measures are routinely used in Brazil, many entomological and effectiveness information still need better evidence in endemic areas where Plasmodium vivax predominates. Herein, we outlined some of the needs and priorities for future research: a) update of the cartography of malaria vectors in Brazil, adding molecular techniques for the correct identification of species and complexes of species; b) evaluation of vector competence of anophelines in Brazil; c) strengthening of local entomology teams to perform vector control measures and interpret results; d) evaluation of vector control measures, especially use of insecticide-treated nets and long-lasting insecticidal nets, estimating their effectiveness, cost-benefit, and population acceptance; e) establishment of colonies of malaria vectors in Brazil, i.e., Anopheles darlingi, to understand parasite-vector interactions better; f) study of new vector control strategies with impacts on non-endophilic vectors; g) estimation of the impact of insecticide resistance in different geographical areas; and h) identification of the relative contribution of natural and artificial breeding sites in different epidemiological contexts for transmission.

Ecological aspects of lepidopteran caterpillar parasitoids from Caryocar brasiliense Camb. (Caryocaraceae) in a cerrado sensu stricto of Central Brazil / Aspectos ecológicos de parasitóides em lagartas de Lepidoptera em Caryocar brasiliense Camb. (Caryocaraceae) em um cerrado sensu stricto do Brasil Centra

This study quantified parasitoid occurrence on five lepidopteran caterpillars species that use Caryocar brasiliense as host plant, trying to verify if there was a direct relationship between host abundance and the proportion of parasitism; if leaf shelters served as cues or protection from parasitoids; if host size influenced the proportion of parasitism, and if attacks by Diptera were more frequent than by Hymenoptera. Searches for external folivorous caterpillars were carried out in an area of cerrado sensu stricto, from July/2003 to June/2004. Caterpillars were more parasitized when occurred on mature leaves. Nola sp. (Noctuiidae) had the highest proportion of parasitism and a negative correlation between their body size and parasitoid attack. Caterpillars that constructed shelters suffered lower parasitism than those exposed. Hymenopteran parasitoids were more abundant than Dipteran parasitoids attacking caterpillars on C. brasiliense leaves. In general, parasitoid species richness and the proportion of parasitism in lepidopteran caterpillar on C. brasiliense showed associations with host population density, their life strategy, diet and leaf nutritional quality.

Este estudo quantificou a ocorrência de parasitóides em cinco espécies de lagartas de Lepidoptera que possuem Caryocar brasiliense como planta hospedeira, verificando se existe uma relação direta e positiva entre a abundância do hospedeiro e a proporção de parasitismo; se os abrigos utilizados pelas espécies de Lepidoptera atuam como pistas ou proteção contra os parasitóides; se o tamanho do hospedeiro influencia as taxas de parasitismo e se existe uma maior ocorrência de ataques de Diptera em comparação com Hymenoptera nas lagartas de Lepidoptera no cerrado do Distrito Federal, Brasil. O estudo foi realizado em uma área de cerrado sensu stricto da Fazenda Água Limpa no período de julho de 2003 a junho de 2004, à procura de lagartas folívoras externas. As lagartas foram mais parasitadas quando ocorreram em folhas maduras. Nola sp. (Noctuidae) apresentou a maior proporção de parasitismo em comparação com as outras espécies e foi a única espécie em que se verificou uma correlação negativa entre as taxas de parasitismo e o tamanho de seus indivíduos. As espécies de lagartas que constroem abrigos apresentaram menores porcentagens de parasitismo em comparação com as que vivem expostas. Os parasitóides da ordem Hymenoptera foram mais freqüentes que os Diptera. No geral, para as espécies de Lepidoptera em C. brasiliense, a riqueza de espécies de parasitóides e a porcentagem de parasitismo apresentaram associações com a densidade, a estratégia de vida, a dieta do hospedeiro e a qualidade nutricional da folha de C. brasiliense.